Climate change 'likely to cause wars'

Climate change 'likely to cause wars'
December 10, 2007

Climate change is likely to aggravate old conflicts and trigger new
tensions that could spill over into war or violence in many parts of the
world, a report for the United Nations Environment Programme said.

Areas at risk of greater insecurity include northern and southern
Africa, central Asia, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, China, parts of
the Caribbean and Andean and Amazonian regions of Latin America.

The report, by German and Swiss academics, says that the population of
North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean is estimated to grow by 40
per cent by 2025 at the same time as rainfall and agricultural
production will be in decline.

Entitled Climate Change as a Security Risk, the report suggests that the
climate change-induced causes of conflict are likely to be: degradation
of freshwaters; decline in food production; increase in storm and flood
disasters and environmentally-induced migration.

It identifies vulnerable states and societies as those that are in
political transition and have a low level of economic activity with
often large population or high population densities.

The regional hotspots identified are:

North Africa. It says this could be at particular risk of rising
interstate conflicts including ones that might affect the region and
beyond. Some countries in North Africa have recently suffered internal
unrest and tensions including Algeria and Morocco.advertisementIn
addition, many countries here are "characterised by poverty, high youth
unemployment, wide social discrepancies and scanty state social security
networks".

Aggravating pressures will be the likelihood of increased migration to
the north by people living in the Sahel region and increased rural to
city migration.

"As usable land and water resources become increasingly scarce, and use
of non-sustainable methods of agriculture continues, desertification
will cause further impoverishment and the risk of water and land-related
conflicts at regional and local level will increase throughout North
Africa," says the report.

After 2025-2030, water conflicts between Egypt and other countries
cannot be excluded and could trigger insecurity that is 'felt far beyond
the region".

The experts believe that the political and institutional structures of
southern Europe will be able to cope with environmental changes such as
drought and heat waves. But it notes that migration from countries of
North Africa to EU countries could have violent consequences.

Central Asia. Above-average warming and glacial retreat will exacerbate
water and agricultural problems in a region already characterised by
political and social tensions and civil war, (Tajikistan).

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh. The retreat of glaciers in the Himalayas
will jeopardise the water supply for millions. Changes in the monsoon
will affect agriculture.

China. Climate change will intensify existing environmental stresses
from air and soil degradation. Cyclones and sea level rise will affect
the populous south coast. The report says that the government's capacity
to cope could be overwhelmed by the rapid pace of modernisation, social
and environmental crises and climate change.
Hans Schellnhuber, a lead author of the report, director of the Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research and a visiting professor at Oxford
university, said:" Without resolute counteraction, climate change will
overstretch many societies' adaptive capacities within coming decades.
This could result in destabilisation and violence jeopardising national
and international security to a new degree".